Key Biscayne Previews

From one combined event to another, the ATP and WTA’s best settle down in hot and humid Florida. This time, it’s not just the men who are out in full force. Key Biscayne welcomes 18 from the world’s twenty best women. Five more than in Indian Wells, where Justine Henin, Kim Clijsters and Serena Williams were mostly missed.

On the men’s side, Rafael Nadal is looking to go for the Federer double by following up his Indian Wells win with a crown in Key Biscayne. Federer won both events in 2006 and 2005 but has had an unexpected extra week off coming into the second Masters Series event of the season, after a shocking second round loss to Argentine Guillermo Canas in the California desert.
The Swiss No. 1 will open his campaign against up and coming American Sam Querrey on Saturday. He will likely meet Richard Gasquet in the fourth round, before facing German veteran Tommy Haas in the quarters.

It will be interesting to see how Federer deals with his surprising loss in Indian Wells, but it’s unlikely the cool Swiss will be out of his comfort zone for too long. His encounter with the ninth-seeded Haas in the quarters could mean fireworks and looks like his toughest test en route to the final.

Awaiting Federer in the semi-final will probably be either Nikolay Davydenko or Ivan Ljubicic, both of whom he has never lost against. The two Eastern Europeans played a marathon match in Rotterdam in February, with the big-serving Croat edging out a third set tiebreak win. Seeing as Ljubicic reached the final here last year, he has a slight edge over the Russian.

In the bottom half of the draw we have a possible third round blockbuster in James Blake vs Marat Safin, but whoever gets through that one will come up against Novak Djokovic and I think the Serb has the edge over both players. Both Blake and Safin fell early in Indian Wells, while Djokovic is riding high on confidence after his first Masters Series final and his Top 10 breakthrough.

That means we’ll have an Indian Wells rematch of Nole vs Rafa in the quarters, if the 20-year-old Spaniard plays his way past nemesis Mikhail Youzhny, whom he has lost to at the US Open last year and in Dubai last month. However, if Nadal brings his Indian Wells form to Southern Florida, the hard-hitting Russian will be in for a rough ride. The ’07 Rotterdam champion first needs to beat Marcos Baghdatis in the third round, as well.

Andy Murray could have faced Lleyton Hewitt in his third round, but the Australian pulled out on Saturday before his second round match against Dutchman Raemon Sluiter with a lower back injury he took with him from his loss against Janko Tipsarevic in Indian Wells.

Murray still has a tough draw with Fernando Gonzalez in the fourth round and Andy Roddick in the quarters, but I believe we will see a strong run from the Scotsman in Key Biscayne, taking him to the semi-finals and into the Top 10.

Trusting on Nadal’s form, nothing stands in the way of part ten of the Federer – Nadal rivalry in next week’s final. Where two years ago Federer came back from a 2 set deficit in the final to beat Rafa in five sets, this year's championship match will be played over three sets. I'm going with Nadal in three.

SHARAPOVA GETS BRUTAL DRAW

Draws don’t come much harder than this when you’re a No. 1 seed. Maria Sharapova is scheduled to face Venus Williams in the third round, while sister Serena awaits in the round of 16. Sharapova, the ’06 finalist in Key Biscayne, leads Venus 2-1 in career meetings but lost their last encounter at the Wimbledon semi-finals in 2005, when the elder Williams went on to win the trophy. Sharapova trails Serena 3-2 head-to-head, with the 6-1, 6-2 thumping in this year’s Australian Open final still fresh on everyone’s memory.

I don’t see the 19-year-old Russian outhitting both sisters. I believe Serena will make it to the quarters where she will take on Czech teen star Nicole Vaidisova, whom she defeated in the semifinals of her Australian Open run. It’s hard to say how Serena will perform because she hasn’t played a match since her memorable win Down Under. However, judging from her performance in Melbourne, you just have to give the edge to the American because she simply is the toughest competitor of the women’s game, while Vaidisova seemingly lacks a killer’s instinct.

In the semi-finals I believe we could see another Australian Open clash revisited, if Shahar Peer manages to outgrind defending champion Svetlana Kuznetsova in the fourth round and Martina Hingis or Ana Ivanovic in the quarterfinals. Peer has a very complete game and this could well be a breakthrough event for the Israeli No. 16. Still, if she faces Serena in the semi’s, I’m going with the experience, no matter how close she was in Melbourne.

In the bottom half we find the two Belgian powerhouses, the new No. 1 Justine Henin, although still seeded second in Key Biscayne, and fourth-seeded Kim Clijsters, possibly playing her last major in the US.

Henin is scheduled to meet Indian Wells surprise winner Daniela Hantuchova in the fourth round but I don’t see Dani scalping the 24-year-old Belgian.

So, will we see an all-Belgian semi-final? I don’t think so. Henin should go through Nadia Petrova in the quarters, but my guess is that fast-rising Anna Chakvetadze gets to face the No. 1 for a final berth.

The 19-year-old Russian is 27-5 in her last 32 matches and briefly cracked the Top 10 in February by reaching the semi-finals at the Tier II in Antwerp. She dropped to No. 12 after skipping Doha and Dubai and lost in the fourth round of Indian Wells to Shahar Peer.

Chakvetadze should be able to beat Golovin in the third round, even though she lost to the Frenchwoman at the US Open last year, and she leads Jelena Jankovic, her likely fourth round opponent, 4-1 in career meetings. The ’06 Moscow titlist would have a hard time against an in-form Clijsters in the quarterfinals, but it remains to be seen if the Belgian can perform consistently when she’s not playing that much in her farewell year, and apparantly, doesn’t take her game as seriously as she used to.

I’m thinking we’ll be in for a Serena – Justine final, with the Belgian prevailing in three sets.